Tim Bray has been doing a series of late on technology success predictors, the latest of which is a list of factors which may be important, including investor support.

Asks Bray: "Is a heavy flow of investment dollars an important predictive success factor?"

Having spent a lot of years in and around the venture community and watching startups, I know that there are two things which can kill a nascent technology: not enough money, and too much money. Not enough money is obvious. Too much money seems counterintuitive, but is just as deadly.

Microsoft is floating an "iPod killer" which will pack audio and video playback into a Windows CE-based device costing $400 to $700. Units will be available in mid-2004, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say this product (at least as it is being shown currently) will land with a dull thud. In fact, I'm going to go even farther, and suggest that this will become an excellent case study of how good theories don't translate into good products.

Theory: To beat iPod, you have to do it better. It is pretty hard to refine the digital music player much beyond the iPod, which fits the niche almost perfectly. An excellent combination of storage capacity, form factor and experience (aka user interface), the only thing it needs is a lower price, and that's supposed to be coming. So how do you do iPod one better?

Why, add video, of course!

Bzzzzzzt! Wrong answer.

At the risk of sounding much older than I really am, I've been on the Internet since 1987. Writing about the Social Networking fad last night made me think about other fads which have come and gone over the years. A fad, in my mind, is an idea or technology which is briefly popular, but can't outlast its own novelty value. Once people get over the newness of it all, there isn't really anything special left.

Here, off the cuff, are the ten which stand out most in my mind:

We've seen it all before. Cool Technology In Search Of An Application.

Social Networking software and services, like Friendster and Tribenet , have been getting a lot of attention lately. These services allow their users to take advantage of the "six degrees" concept to expand their social and business circles. For example, you might not know Joe Smith, but you might know Mary Jones, who knows Joe Smith. This gives you a connection to Joe, and you can use that to make an introduction for business or social purposes.