“The More I Find Out, The Less I Know”
From Pandemic to Endemic
In the first few weeks and months of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a real hope that with sufficient lockdowns, contact tracing, and social distancing measures we might be able to quash the virus to the point where there would only be isolated cases. There was even good reason to think we could eradicate it completely, the way we quickly eliminated the original SARS virus and MERS a few years later.
A year and a half later, with continuing waves of outbreaks despite widespread vaccination in developed countries, it’s fair to say that the window has closed for bringing COVID-19 under control. In hindsight, it now seems like we may never have had a real opportunity to keep the disease from spreading globally.
Has Israel Achieved Herd Immunity?
This is purely an educated layperson’s half-baked theory, and people much smarter than me with more expertise in epidemiology might instantly spot some obvious reason why what I’m about to write is completely and utterly wrong. But with that disclaimer out of the way…
I think there’s a strong chance that Israel reached COVID herd immunity around the first week of March.
What’s more, if that’s true then there’s some useful insights we can probably gain about the course of the pandemic here in the United States over the next few months.
San Francisco SCUBA Map, circa 2050
300 feet of sea level rise is almost impossible under any climate change scenario. But it is fun to put onto a map of San Francisco.
Global Drying?
On the whole, if the Earth is getting warmer you would also expect that it will get wetter.
Global Catastrophe
Global warming is serious, but I think we’ll probably muddle through somehow like we usually do.
Science Education
Here’s a simple exam for almost any science class which would actually test what scientists do.
Well, is it hard or not?
Either something is a tremendous feat on the cutting edge of science, or it’s easy to do by guys living in a cave in Afghanistan. It can’t be both at once.
Theories, Laws, Models, Hypotheses, Facts, and Leppik’s Law
The empirical evidence for a scientific theory is inversely proportional to the grandiosity of the name.
Strung Along
Modern physics has some big problems: there are two different theories of How Things Work, but they don't fit together. Einstein's General Relativity has passed every experimental test we can throw at it, and explains how the universe works on the scale of solar systems, galaxies, and bigger. At the other end of the spectrum, various quantum theories combine into the Standard Model, which has passed every experimental test we can throw at it, and explains how the universe works on the scale of molecules, atoms, and smaller.
Sonoluminescent Fusion Confirmed
According to a press release today, researchers have confirmed nuclear fusion resulting from sonoluminescence.
From a theoretical perspective, this is way cool. No, cooler than that. This is, like, totally cool.